Iran, current events and ongoing sabre rattling!

[Gary]

Just saw on Sky News. Iranian State TV are claiming a US Drone shot down

Iran's military has shot down an unmanned US aircraft over the east of the country, state TV has reported.

"Iran's military has downed an intruding RQ-170 American drone in eastern Iran," Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam state television network quoted an unnamed military source as saying.

A report on English-language Press TV said the drone was "downed with minimum damage" and seized by Iranian officials close to the border with Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The RQ-170 Sentinel is an unmanned stealth aircraft used for reconnaissance. It is not designed to carry weapons.

The semi-official Fars news agency, which is believed to be close to the Revolutionary Guard military force, said Iran would respond to the violation of its airspace with actions beyond its own borders.

There was no immediate comment on the claims from the US military, which rarely officially confirms operations carried out using such aircraft.

In July, US officials dismissed a report that a US drone had been downed over the city of Qom, home of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, close to the Fordu nuclear facility.

The reports came amid worsening relations between the West and Iran over its nuclear programme after the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a report it said showed Iran had worked on designing an atomic bomb.

Iran has insisted its nuclear ambitions are entirely peaceful, but prompted the US and European Union to agree tighter sanctions on Iranian companies and individuals.

Earlier on Sunday, Iran's foreign ministry warned that any move to extend those sanctions to block oil exports would double the price of crude.

"As soon as such an issue is raised seriously the oil price would soar to above $250 a barrel," foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast was quoted as saying.

Britain has also downgraded its relations with Iran following the storming of the UK embassy in Tehran by students protesting over the sanctions on Iran's central bank.

British diplomats in Tehran were evacuated following the incident and Iranian embassy staff in London were expelled.

Info from Sky News

[von_trippenhopf]

Ooops!

[Richard B]

Says a lot about Stealth.

[davedubya]

Iran are claiming it was only "slightly damaged".

So I wonder they've not released photos.

[Gary]

Bit of info on the Flightglobal website

The official Iran Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) is reporting that national military forces have shot down a US Lockheed Martin RQ-170 stealth unmanned air system. The aircraft sustained "little damage" and is in the possession of the Iranian military, IRNA reports.

Iranian news agency claims always have to be taken with some degree of scepticism.

The credibility of the online version of the IRNA article is not helped by the accompanying photo. The US Air Force has never released an official picture of the RQ-170, but we can be sure the the UAV in the IRNA article is not it. The IRNA photo instead is a stock image of the BAE Systems Raven delta wing demonstrator, an aircraft that was retired more than seven years ago.

It is also hard to understand how it is possible to shoot down a UAV and only cause a "little damage".

Stay tuned as the story develops ...

UPDATE 1: Iran Press TV adds a new wrinkle to the story.

"The informed source said on Sunday that Iran Army's electronic warfare unit successfully targeted the American-built RQ-170 Sentinel stealth aircraft after it crossed into Iranian airspace over the border with neighboring Afghanistan."

If confirmed, this suggests the RQ-170 wasn't shot down by fighters or ground-based air defence systems, which may explain the lack of damage.

Once again, Iran so far has produced no visual evidence to back up its claims, so we'll have to wait for photos. Incidentally, the online Press TV article also publishes the wrong photo of the RQ-170. Their image actually shows the Dassault AVE-D demonstrator.

UPDATE 2: It's important to remember that Iran has claimed UAV kills before, although never about the RQ-170. In January, Iran claimed to shoot down two UAVs, and then claimed another UAV kill in July. Iran never provided pictures or videos to back up its claims.

Info from Flightglobal website

Without photographic / video proof wouldn't believe anything the Iranians say

[T_J]

ISAF says drone lost over Afghanistan late last week

(Reuters) - A surveillance drone flying over western Afghanistan had gone out of control late last week and may be the one Iran said it had shot down over its own airspace, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said on Sunday.

"The UAV to which the Iranians are referring may be a U.S. unarmed reconnaissance aircraft that had been flying a mission over western Afghanistan late last week. The operators of the UAV lost control of the aircraft and had been working to determine its status," an ISAF statement said.

The statement about the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was issued in Kabul and released to reporters covering an international conference on Afghanistan in the German city Bonn.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/ ... CQ20111204" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[steve149c]

So - did the Americans lose control of it - or did the Iranians shoot it down (either weapon fire, or hacked it)?

[RichC]

No surprise it was lost over Western Afghanistan/Eastern Iran. There would be only one purpose to have a Stealth UAV in Afghanistan and that would be to incurse into a bordering nation (Iran and Pakistan).
As the Taliban do not have radar capability.

[steve149c]

They might - but the Iranians could claim that the Americans have violated their airspace! Its a touchy one.

[hertsman]

Apparently Russia recently supplied Iran with its Avtobaza ground-based electronic intelligence and jamming system. So the claim that the drone was electronically attacked is not out of the question. FlightGlobal's DEW Line carries the story here: http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ISAF have admitted to a drone loss in the general area of Western Afghanistan, and the US have not denied it was their latest stealth asset, so the story has growing credibility, but still falls short of being confirmed. It is not yet possible to establish if the loss of the drone inspired a disinformation story from Iran, or if Iran's claim forced ISAF to tell of the drone loss.

If the Avtobaza was recently supplied, Iran seem to have have got it working very well very quickly for such a new piece of kit. Either the training from the Russians was very good, or they are providing hands-on help to their customers. Now the Russians wouldn't deliberately target an American stealth drone would they?


hertsman

[RichC]

They would have to know it was 'in the vicinity' at that specific time to be able to know when to jam the signals...

[RichC]

US confirms they are "concerned" over the loss of their UAV
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16043626" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[hertsman]

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... an-365652/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/de ... d=blogDest" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... dy%20Dated" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

More news links indicating that there is definitely something to this story, including a 'damage limitation' attempt from Aviation Week.

Now whether it was attacked electronically and crashed out of control, or simply malfunctioned and crashed, or was somehow 'hi-jacked' and brought to a controlled landing is still up for grabs. The Iranians certainly want the US to believe they have a Sentinel more or less intact, but it's not yet clear if they do, and we won't be sure unless they produce the evidence. If they don't, my guess would be they have some bits that fell from a long way up.

The Americans are clearly concerned though.

hertsman

[hertsman]

Watcher,

Yes it's possible this is a disinformation effort or even a decoy by the US. Long ago I recall Israeli drones being used, I believe in the Bekaa Valley, to provoke the Syrians into lighting up their radar systems so their signatures could be analysed for the upcoming Israeli attack. It is possible that something similar was going on here, but my gut instinct is this not the case. It looks and feels like a US loss.

We will learn more if the Iranians show off their spoils.

hertsman

[BOLLO]

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/0 ... a-mission/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[hertsman]

Yes, I'm sure the US is more concerned about what might be left for the Iranians or their buddies to paw through than the loss of the aircraft itself, although they will not be pleased about that either. If it did fall from a great height they will be hoping it's in tiny bits, but I suspect even their satellite technology is not that good that they can be certain that everything really sensitive has been mashed.

According to the CNN item linked earlier, they did think about blitzing it but ruled it out. It might only be a bit of dessert, but it is Iran's bit of dessert, and technically an attack on their territory. So whether they ruled it out for logistical or political reasons is not clear, or perhaps they didn't want Iran to have the excuse to respond with an immediate attack on Israel or US bases in the Middle East. I suspect this was a very hard judgement call, probably a lot more difficult than the CNN item implies.

Whatever the truth of this incident, we may never find out for sure. But the temperature is definitely rising down in that neck of the woods.

hertsman

[RichC]

They know for a fact they can't go waltzing in with an air strike or SF team to destroy or recover due to the huge implications. IF it was another country (Pakistan, Yemen, etc) they wouldn't have worried to much. Iran is going to get something coming to it, but not yet and the US are still trying to weigh up the implications of anything militarily going on, on their soil. It's way too dangerous to do what they normally do in any other radical country and just go in.......

Thing is, even a UAV can cause a major incident. This has to be dealt with in a very cautionary stance by both parties....
The US may have lost a highly advanced/technology UAV and we know what normally happens when this is done... China or Russia gets involved (Serbia, Pakistan for examples).

It seems whatever the US developed at Area51 in highly secret programmes, always end up on a floor somewhere and into the hands they had been trying to keep it from for many years before just because of mistakes made.

Those Sentinels would only be in Afghanistan purely for Pakistan and Iranian border incursions..... nothing more as far as i can see.

[steve149c]

it seems whatever the US developed at Area51 in highly secret programmes, always end up on a floor somewhere and into the hands they had been trying to keep it from for many years before just because of mistakes made.
.

No offence Rich, your comment made me think this - the Iranians will be displaying a downed Met Balloon soon then

Cheers

Steve

[hertsman]

Those Sentinels would only be in Afghanistan purely for Pakistan and Iranian border incursions..... nothing more as far as i can see.

And maybe also to look further into either from high altitude while staying in Afghan airspace? I don't know the distances involved from Afghanistan to 'targets of interest' inside Iran or Pakistan, but the Israelis have confirmed they use their drones to have a peek over the neighbours' fences. Doubtless not as good as going right in, but safer in theory. While we have been told by ISAF this aircraft was in Afghanistan, this particular type of UAV is designed for stealthy incursion, so it may have been the wrong side of the line.

I agree with RichC that this incident could have triggered a reaction the US and its allies are not yet fully prepared for. There is though, growing circumstantial evidence that something more kinetic than surveillance and diplomacy is becoming more likely, if it hasn't already started as the Sky News item comments.

hertsman

[Richard B]

This will be a big blow for the USA if Iran have this UAV,
if they hand over the technolgy to Russia and China give them the knowledge of how the stealth system works and can counter it.

This is supposed to have happened with the downed F117, and the demise of the aircraft as its secret could be countered.
Still think that Russia can detect stealth anyway and do show there hand when they can, could this be telling the USA we can see your stealth and bring it down,
putting off any idea of a stealth attack.

its all swings and round abouts this game but this war that i see coming with Iran will be a bad one and will kick off some bad times for everyone.