Libya Update Thread - 48 hours for Libyan Freedom ??

[T_J]

LIBYA: RAF Typhoons drop first bombs in combat

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... ombat.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

By Craig Hoyle

The UK has given the historic first offensive use to the Eurofighter Typhoon, with two Royal Air Force aircraft having dropped precision-guided bombs on Libyan targets on 12 April.

Chief of the air staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Stephen Dalton says the aircraft each dropped one Raytheon Paveway II 454kg (1,000lb) precision-guided bomb against ground vehicles being operated by forces loyal to Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi. Each target was struck "very successfully and very accurately", he revealed during the Royal Aeronautical Society's Aerospace 2011 conference in London.

TJ

[quid21]

As I and many on here suspected, regime change was always the intention no matter what the politicians said at the beginning.

As far as I can see, the only real method to protect the civilians is for NATO to send in ground troops. If Libyas forces are in and amongst the city buildings NATO cannot really scratch the surface without using gunships like the Apache or even the AC-130s, and even then you're restricted to shooting at what you can see, and are likely to miss the forces hidden in buildings without having dedicated NATO FAC with a laser designator on the ground.

[T_J]

As far as I can see, the only real method to protect the civilians is for NATO to send in ground troops. If Libyas forces are in and amongst the city buildings NATO cannot really scratch the surface without using gunships like the Apache or even the AC-130s, and even then you're restricted to shooting at what you can see, and are likely to miss the forces hidden in buildings without having dedicated NATO FAC with a laser designator on the ground.

It has been rumoured in the media that France might send forward air controllers. The only problem with that is on a fluid front line they are vulnerable to capture by Gaddafi forces.

Apache and AC-130 are highly vulnerable platforms in this type of situation. The rebel Hind helo that was seen recently on TV flying into battle was shot down shortly afterwards. The rebels announced the shootdown and the media were given access to the funeral of the crew.

AC-130s are not something that any air planner is going to place over the battle field during the day. AC-130 ops were severly restricted to daytime operations in Iraq due to their vulnerability.

The last thing that NATO want is unnecessary losses due to putting aircraft in easy reach of Libyan anti aircraft artillery and man portable air defence systems. AH-64s were also kept out of operations in Kosovo due to that very reason.

US Army AH-64s were ambushed in Iraq during 2003.

http://www.airforce-magazine.com/Magazi ... najaf.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It is an extremely difficult situation. The rules of engagement are going to restrict what can and can't be targeted. The Libyan Army is free to place armour and forces in places where they know that NATO will not stike due to fears of collateral damage.

One munition that is proving invaluable in Libya is Brimstone. No need to put an AH-64 and crew inside the AAA/MANPAD envelope when you can deliver a hellfire type weapon from a Tornado GR4 at height with pin-point precision. The US and France are reported to have shown great interest in MBDA Brimstone.

US, French militaries interested in Brimstone missile, says RAF official

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... s-raf.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TJ

[BOLLO]

Reports in today's press is that the RAF is nearly running out of Brimstone's due to use over Libya.How true that is I do not know but with the repost from a few weeks back that Nato is short of LGB's as well its not looking too clever at all.

[T_J]

Italy has now joined the bombing offensive.

Libya: Silvio Berlusconi approves the use of Italy's air force in Nato strikes

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... rikes.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TJ

[beefsteak]

Didn't know that they could fly backwards !!
or
I thought they'd surrendered already...........................................I'll get my coat.

[hertsman]

http://www.defencemanagement.com/news_s ... p?id=16155" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The above article from Defence Management quotes Hague as saying we are in it for the long haul.

I continue to wonder how effective an aerial bombardment alone can be to achieve the required objective. Incidentally, the required objective is implicitly kicking Gadaffi out of power. While some civilians have been protected, others have not. Over the long haul they will suffer enormously as the innocents in war always will.

While individual NATO air strikes are clearly effective against Libyan military assets which are sufficiently isolated as to be easily targeted with acceptable degrees of risk of collateral damage, NATO airpower is not so effective when it comes to street-fighting or targets that locate themselves where they are effectively shielded by the population or civil buildings. Naturally, that's where the Libyan military will now be locating themselves.

I sense that the military air campaign is losing impetus. Where we go from here is very unclear to me, and I'm not convinced it's clear to NATO either. Is 'mission creep' ie boots on the ground, more likely? How do we exit gracefully? A negotiated partition with MG still in power in the West of the country looks least-worst option right now - or am I being too pessimistic (but bear in mind I did not start out optimistic)?

hertsman

[T_J]

http://www.defencemanagement.com/news_s ... p?id=16155

The above article from Defence Management quotes Hague as saying we are in it for the long haul.

I continue to wonder how effective an aerial bombardment alone can be to achieve the required objective. Incidentally, the required objective is implicitly kicking Gadaffi out of power. While some civilians have been protected, others have not. Over the long haul they will suffer enormously as the innocents in war always will.

While individual NATO air strikes are clearly effective against Libyan military assets which are sufficiently isolated as to be easily targeted with acceptable degrees of risk of collateral damage, NATO airpower is not so effective when it comes to street-fighting or targets that locate themselves where they are effectively shielded by the population or civil buildings. Naturally, that's where the Libyan military will now be locating themselves.

I sense that the military air campaign is losing impetus. Where we go from here is very unclear to me, and I'm not convinced it's clear to NATO either. Is 'mission creep' ie boots on the ground, more likely? How do we exit gracefully? A negotiated partition with MG still in power in the West of the country looks least-worst option right now - or am I being too pessimistic (but bear in mind I did not start out optimistic)?

hertsman

Journalist in Misratah posting on ARRSE (British Army Rumour Service) forum username 'Rumpelstiltskin'

He is continuing his claims of British and French Forward Air Controllers embedded with the rebels. This includes hearing a French FAC on a radio network.

Claims of them working to eliminate the Gadaffi artillery located in hidden positions within Misratah. Some interesting chit chat on the following webpage.

http://www.arrse.co.uk/libya-middle-eas ... s-169.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TJ

[T_J]

HMS Liverpool in action.

British destroyer forced to defend itself after being targeted by Libyan rockets

http://bfbs.com/news/worldwide/british- ... 47526.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Libyan forces fire on HMS Liverpool

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ ... _1_2673493" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HMCS Charlottetown

Canadian warship opens fire on Libyan forces

http://www.globalnational.com/Canadian+ ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

French frigate FNS Courbet has been targeting Libyan forces near Misrata during the night of 7th and 8th May.

http://www.meretmarine.com/article.cfm?id=116145" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TJ

[T_J]

From 07:41 on following video link.

Royal Air Force Ellamy 906-110509-0132 Two Clips

Planned strike by Royal Air Force aircraft on a Qadhafi regime brigade headquarters building.

Strike by Tornado GR4 aircraft on a building being used by the Qadhafi regime near Misratah

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTOv-knmPb0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TJ

[hertsman]

"NATO air power has failed to eject Gaddafi"

So says the author of the linked article from Defence Management.

He argues that NATO has to widen the target list, despite the increase of risk of collateral damage that might entail, as well as continuing to stretch the boundaries of the UN mandate.

The item is available here: http://www.defencemanagement.com/featur ... p?id=16404" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

hertsman

[BOLLO]

Unconfirmed reports today that the French and UK military are sending attack helicopters to Libya.The French are saying they are sending some of theirs but the MOD is not saying any thing about sending AH64's down there yet.

[T_J]

RAF Typhoon takes off for Tiji with four Enhanced Paveway II 1000lb bombs

Image at following link.

http://www.raf.mod.uk/rafcms/mediafiles ... 554B60.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.raf.mod.uk/news/archive/1000 ... s-26052011" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Video of strike.

http://www.raf.mod.uk/rafcms/mediafiles ... 17B4A7.wmv" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.raf.mod.uk/news/Libya-OpELLAMY.cfm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TJ

[T_J]

Video of Misrata airport. Abandoned and destroyed aircraft.

http://english.aljazeera.net/video/midd ... 16563.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TJ

[hertsman]

An article from Director of the Air League, Andrew Brookes, quoted from Defence Management, asks 'Is the no-fly zone enough?' Brookes summarises the UK's role so far, but suggests more is needed to lever the cunning Libyan dictator from power.

No surprises here, more an affirmation of the inevitable.

Article available here: http://www.defencemanagement.com/featur ... p?id=16556" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

hertsman

[Craig]

An article from Director of the Air League, Andrew Brookes, quoted from Defence Management, asks 'Is the no-fly zone enough?'

hertsman

Perhaps the no fly zone is enough if all you want to do is be in a postion to prevent Ghadaffi from air striking his own citizens. We could have done the difficult bit to begin with, taking out the ground threats to allow Arab League airframes to fly any future CAP missions. I don't think after a short, sharp bombing campaign the Libyan Air Force would have attempted to fly again anyway. Achieve dominance of the airspace by creating a no fly zone to protect the citizens from air attacks.

To truly answer the above question you need to know what the objective is. Sir Rupert Smith was on TV the other day and when asked his opinion on Libya he replied along the lines of; 'You can't be only just a little bit involved in stopping a civil war, just like you can't be only just a little bit pregnant.' He basically suggested, if you wanted to get between the two forces without taking sides and prevent them from fighting each other, then you had better be prepared to fight them all yourself. In my opinion if it was purely about minimising civilian casualties we should have left it to Ghadaffi to kill a few of them, crush the uprising and restore order in his country. I guaruntee you our involvement will lead to more civilian casualites than if we had of stayed out. I appreciate we are genuinely trying to help and actually have the moral high ground, but we will not be thanked for it and escalation combined with prolonging of conflict will ultimately lead to more civilian deaths.

I hope the Russians can negotiate a deal with him that saves the West face by getting Ghadaffi out and can lead to this conflict ending. Not that suddenly the rest of them will put down their arms and all turn up at the local village hall to cast their vote in a fair democratic election and live happily ever after. The facilities for that to happen are not in place, which is exactly why we had no proof that the majority of the citizens of Libya wanted us to side with the rebels. I have a feeling Ghadaffi had more support than the media and our politicians portrayed, they probably didn't think it would matter when he would be killed quickly but now it is a mess.

[hertsman]

Craig, pretty much agree with most of that. It's human nature that we can better accept casualties a few at at a time, but not lots in one go - hence why thousands of road death's are less newsworthy than an Air France Airbus in the South Atlantic for example. So also 'x' casualties in Libya over a long period are more palatable than x-25% over a very short period, even though fewer people may lose their lives in a short, sharp conflict.

But this view is also too cold-blooded for our western sensibilities, which are steadily migrating towards unattainable zero risk tolerances.

I make no secret I was very unenthusiastic about this intervention, well-intentioned though it may have been, and I am very concerned about how we can extricate ourselves from the resulting stalemate. Without ground intervention, political or psy-ops are probably our best chance, although I suspect that the military campaign is now more about exerting these kinds of pressure than the primary physical damage caused by the NATO raids.

Like you, I hope Russia can be a force for good here, but that may still leave Gaddafi in at least partial power, which will be far from satisfactory.

hertsman

[hertsman]

It seems that NATO's call for more assets has been answered. Fairly predictably, the increase comes from a familiar and already stretched resource, that is the RAF.

Defence News reports the addition of 4 Tornado aircraft, primarily allocated to the surveillance and reconnaissance role, presumably courtesy of their RAPTOR pods. http://www.defencemanagement.com/news_s ... p?id=16905" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There were whispers that Gaddafi was in talks with the French a few days ago, although I have heard of nothing concrete coming from this yet. The campaign is off the front pages now (and no longer an active topic on this forum either) and it seems that something different has to happen to break the stalemate. I don't know what this might be but I hope it happens sooner rather than later.

hertsman

[hertsman]

I am not an expert in Arab culture, but sabre-rattling and bombast do seem to be the order of the day for despots such as Gaddafi, especially when addressing their supporters, real or coerced. So while courage and defiance are very publicly on display, this does not necessarily reflect the reality behind the scenes (remember an Iraqi communications minister uttering denials of western forces in Baghdad, while his troops could be seen over his shoulder, running away in their undies?).

The BBC reports on the latest public pronouncement from Gaddafi: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14176051" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

According to the BBC article, new overtures are to be made to Gaddafi in the near future. Negotiation looks like the only sensible course now, although Gaddafi is clearly angling for a let-off as part of any agreement. Unsatisfactory if it happens, but perhaps a pragmatic solution to what otherwise will be a long-running conflict that is not going anywhere, and is fast fading from the public consciousness. Errant media moguls, once unassailable, but now fair game for two-faced politicians, competitors and a public raised on the sensationalism on which their empire was built, are today's news.

Some more detail on the latest RAF deployment from Flightglobal:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... paign.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

hertsman

[Hurn]

According to the BBC article, new overtures are to be made to Gaddafi in the near future. Negotiation looks like the only sensible course now, although Gaddafi is clearly angling for a let-off as part of any agreement. Unsatisfactory if it happens, but perhaps a pragmatic solution to what otherwise will be a long-running conflict that is not going anywhere, and is fast fading from the public consciousness.

From the start, I've never expected Gadaffi to just give up like the politicians were calling for; I mean why on earth would he?
He knows he'd be put on trial and most likely executed so better to go down fighting, and I can understand that train of thought.

IMO, if the politicians really want this stupid conflict to end now, then some sort of deal will have to be struck with Gadaffi. If not, then it goes dragging on.......and on......